Ogallala, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

598
FXUS63 KLBF 260812
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
312 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated to near critical fire weather concerns are possible
  this afternoon across western Nebraska and the Sandhills, due
  to above average temperatures, low humidity, and strong, gusty
  southerly winds.

- Daily precipitation chances from Wednesday through the
  weekend. Heavy rainfall is possible given available moisture,
  however confidence in precipitation placement is low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Today, another round of above average temperatures is expected
across western and north central Nebraska. Highs are again expected
to climb into the upper 80s to potentially mid 90s this afternoon,
which is around 15 to 20 degrees above average for late May. Along
with the higher temperatures this afternoon, expecting to see low
relative humidity across western Nebraska and the Sandhills, with
afternoon humidity values around 20 percent or lower. As temperatures
heat up this morning and into the afternoon, expecting fairly strong
mixing in the boundary layer, allowing stronger winds aloft to mix
down to the surface. This should bring fairly gusty southerly winds
across the region by late morning, with stronger gusts by the
afternoon. Southerly winds of 15 to 25 mph are expected, with
widespread gusts around 30 to 35 mph. Across the Sandhills into the
Panhandle, afternoon wind gusts are expected to reach 40 to 45 mph.
Given the combination of well above average temperatures, lower
relative humidity, and strong gusty winds, expecting at least
elevated to near critical fire weather conditions this afternoon
across western Nebraska and the Sandhills. Humidity values, while
low, are expected to remain just above critical criteria, so will
forego any fire weather headlines at this point in time. However,
with these strong, gusty winds, care should be taken with any flame
or spark producing sources, as there is still potential for any fire
starts to rapidly grow and spread. Overnight, humidity recovers to
around 70 to 80 percent, with lows remaining in the mid to upper
50s. Stronger wind gusts are expected to begin tapering off by
midnight, though some stronger gusts may persist across western
Nebraska until around 3 to 4 AM MDT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

By Wednesday, a deep upper level low settles over California and
Nevada, with upper level ridging to the east of the region. With
this larger scale set up, a plume of Gulf moisture is expected to
track across the region. This appears to be a fairly deep layer of
moisture based on forecast soundings. This return of moisture brings
precipitable water values around 1 to 1.25 inches across most of the
region. While the moisture is available aloft, forcing remains
relatively weak, so despite near daily rain chances across the
forecast region through the weekend, exact placement of
precipitation remains low confidence. Given the weaker winds aloft,
any potential storm motion is expected to be slow, which would favor
heavy rainfall, if storms are able to develop. This may create more
of a "hit or miss" style of rain events, where areas that can
develop storms receive meaningful rainfall, and other areas receive
lesser amounts. Ensemble guidance continues to suggest high
confidence in most areas at least getting some measureable
precipitation from Wednesday through the weekend, but lower
confidence in higher end amounts, which is largely due to
uncertainty in where storms may develop.

By late week into the weekend, the upper level low lifts north,
bringing stronger forcing along an upper level trough. This better
forcing brings in some higher confidence for showers and
thunderstorms to develop across most of the region Saturday
afternoon and evening. With plenty of available moisture aloft, this
could bring respectable rainfall amounts across the region. As with
this entire week, will keep an eye on forecast trends to try to
narrow down timing and location, but precipitation chances do look
to persist this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north
central Nebraska throughout the effective TAF period. However, a
strong low level jet is set up across portions of the region
tonight, bringing widespread LLWS concerns through the morning hours.
Additionally, with showers and thunderstorms expected to last a few
more hours, some of these stronger winds aloft may push to the
surface, causing sporadic gusts. Around sunrise, a brief break in
the winds is expected, but by mid morning, expect widespread gusty
southerly winds across the region. Area terminals may expect gusts
around 30 knots, with areas in the Sandhills pushing 40 knots. While
gusts may weaken around sunset, expect gusts to continue through at
least midnight across most of western and north central Nebraska.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Richie